We will be seeing the first full-quarter numbers of Oklahoma’s new fiscal year over the next two weeks. One item that is extremely important is sales tax. If we project our sales tax out over the full twelve-month budget cycle, we would see a 1.32% under-collection. This is certainly nothing to write home about, but if it does play out, it would be a much better eventuality than to be in a revenue failure. This will be dependent on several different things coming true, the most singularly important one being the rise of petroleum prices.
If you follow the petroleum price melodrama, you will really feel like you are a cast member of “As the World Turns." There is more drama and innuendo in this particular market sector than just about any other market known to man. Hopefully, the price will go up and level out, but it is anyone’s guess on what day and year that will be. We are closely monitoring revenue trends, and we will report to you on our findings.
We are going to set a monthly newsletter that is based on the release of the Oklahoma Tax Commission reports for the month of payment and the year to date data. Our goal is to give you a more complete view of upcoming financial trends that will affect your district. We will also add in an additional report each quarter to allow you to have materials that are more long range in nature. We know your time is limited, so we will always begin with an executive summary for your convenience. If we can be of service, please feel free to contact me.